Incompetent Hope: Why the Good Guys Often Finish Last
The Fragility of Hope in Social and Political Movements.
Hope is often the foundation of social and political movements, but it can also be a fragile base when faced with entrenched opposition and systemic resistance. Kamala Harris’s recent campaign, which promised to represent and uplift marginalized communities, faced challenges rooted in deep-seated political divisions and skepticism. Similarly, Kenya’s G-Protests, which rallied for economic reform, reveal how the promise of hope can become a liability without a strong and unifying strategy.
Sociologist Tressie McMillan Cottom during an post election analyis insightfully notes that figures like Donald Trump tap into "empty hope" fueled by public anxieties, contrasting with more complex, inclusive visions. This kind of hope can be seductive but often lacks the resilience needed to support long-term change, especially when facing powerful opposition.
Unfortunately, whether in Kenya , identity politics isn’t separate from politics—it is politics, especially for marginalized groups. Harris’s campaign and the G-Protests embody this reality, as their messages resonate deeply within marginalized communities. Yet, when movements led by women or marginalized figures falter, the backlash can be disproportionately severe. Harris and the G-Protesters alike face the additional burden of having their identities scrutinized and questioned, amplifying the risk of failure.
History has repeatedly shown that movements or leaders focused on social equity often face insurmountable resistance, leading to their downfall despite hopeful intentions. Salvador Allende’s democratic socialist government in Chile (1970-1973) was overthrown by conservative forces and foreign intervention, demonstrating how even progressive leaders can be overwhelmed by external and internal opposition. Similarly, the Arab Spring of 2011, which initially ignited hope for democracy and political freedom across the Arab world, was met with resistance from authoritarian regimes, foreign influence, and internal divisions, ultimately resulting in civil conflicts and the resurgence of authoritarian rule. In the UK, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour government (2015-2020) faced internal party conflicts, divisive Brexit debates, and hostile media coverage, which undermined his progressive platform and led to the party’s defeat. These examples underscore the harsh reality that, no matter how hopeful or well-intentioned, social equity movements often struggle against entrenched opposition and organized resistance.
The struggles of women and marginalized communities in movements like Kamala Harris’s campaign and social protests often reveal the deep limitations of reproductive health advocacy in the face of entrenched political and social inequality. Reproductive health, a key issue for feminist movements, has not always resonated broadly with the electorate, particularly in the United States, where divisive debates over abortion persist. Many view it through a religious or moral lens rather than as a fundamental rights issue, which became evident during Harris’s campaign. Despite framing reproductive rights as essential protections, the conversation failed to galvanize widespread support. Similarly, in Kenya, issues like femicide and gender-based violence have long been critical rallying points for marginalized communities, yet these concerns are often sidelined in mainstream political discourse.
Women’s issues, such as reproductive health and femicide, despite being central to the struggles of these communities, are relegated to the background when they are treated as isolated issues, rather than part of a broader movement for systemic change. In the case of America, the failure to secure reproductive health protections—despite strong support within progressive circles—highlights how political movements become mired in ideological battles, with the voices and needs of women often diluted by partisan gridlock. Similarly, in Kenya, despite the efforts of protests, there remains a lack of commitment to ending femicide and addressing gender-based violence, reflecting how women’s struggles are marginalized even in the face of widespread social unrest. These examples demonstrate how women’s issues, whether in America or Kenya, are often relegated to the background, overshadowed by ideological conflicts, political divisiveness, and a failure to prioritize gender justice in the political agenda.
When movements falter, women and marginalized individuals bear the brunt. Their setbacks aren’t just symbolic—they are real, impacting safety, livelihoods, and community trust. The weight of hope can become a crushing burden at the margins, where losses mean dwindling resources, eroded credibility, and lost opportunities. As Vice President Kamala Harris declared, "I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign." Her call to keep fighting for freedom, fairness, and dignity embodies the resilience needed to push forward. By recognizing both the power and limitations of hope, we can build movements that not only endure but adapt, ensuring no one is left behind in the ongoing struggle for a just, equitable future.
By Nyambura Mundia
The writer is a Gender Peace and Security Expert.